Showing posts with label europe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label europe. Show all posts

Friday, November 2, 2012

Europe:Trampling on Iran when the carpet is pulled out?


Last Updated : 02 November 2012 at 12:30 IST
It is about spirit. Survival of fittest is actually not the survival of a person who is oversupplied with resources but the person who is oversupplied with spirit. And what applies to individuals, often apply to nations.
US and its counterparts in Europe are well aware that the slew of sanctions imposed by the west would cripple Iran economically. But have they failed to notice that the Iranian regime is still standing tall with virtually no great domestic threats?
Of course, there have been protests in the streets of Iran as the Iranian currency Rial plummetted against dollar.
"People are not happy with the economic sanctions but will that push them to overthrow the regime? I don't think so," said Thierry Coville of the Paris-based Institute of International and Strategic Relations to iafrica.com.
The reason, as one may have stated above is that of spirit. Pakistan did make a bomb, although clandestinely and Iran will, if things would progress as currently seen.
As Zulfikkar Ali Bhutto of Pakistan said, "even if we have to eat grass, we will make nuclear bomb. We have no other choice."
Sanctions
Sanctions by nature are economic and political. But the triumph of human spirit far outweighs any sanctions. As Iranians fight a battle against the daily challenges brought forth by sanctions, they in turn develop a resilience, and with the current regime utilising and exploiting it to the nth degree would finally see them through the sanctions.
Invariably, the sanctions could prevent a popular opinion from forming against Iran's nuclear program resulting in a an acceleration of the same. This is the biggest threat emanating from sanctions and a tool that has been utilised to kill the nuclear program by strangulating the economy in effect would feed the program and could even become instrumental in midwifing a bomb.
This also runs the risk of Iran being portrayed as a victim of the machinations of ill-motivated moves carried out by the west. This could be one of the reasons why Iranian popular protests against the inflationary situation did not get inflated beyond a point.
More than anyone else, Iran knows that it has not much of time left to cook a bomb. And with popular opinion possibly rallying for the same, Iran may come out with one bomb quicker than anticipated. And negotiating or waging a war with Iran possessing a nuclear bomb and Iran without a nuclear bomb is entirely different.
Iran, no doubt would try hard to meet deadlines.
Putting the house in order
And as Europe comes up with sanctions after sanctions, may be it is forgetting its own state of affairs.
Minding the backyard is one thing and managing the house in order is another. In its eagerness to comply with US policies on Iran, Europe which unlike US has to depend on Russia and volatile West Africa for its energy needs, could not only face an energy crisis, but also the social unrest that may sweep the continent; thanks to its 'robust' economic situation.
Protests are spreading across Europe and the ambience, as has been pointed out before, could usher in a revolution preceded by unrest.
Ultimately unsound politics when it meets with unsound economy would see the Europe losing all the values that it has so painstakingly nurtured to the din of a revolution. As and when the policy makers try hard to topple Iranian regime, they should not see themselves wanting a chair. It could be awkward, to say the least!

Gold's future and the coming European Revolution


Last Updated : 19 October 2012 at 12:10 ISTYesterday we saw that what that could be good for US economy may not be good for gold. Now as the yellow metal is set for its second weekly decline, one may read from investor's brow a question: is it the beginning of the end of a bull rally in gold?
The question though may appear simple, does not have a one-line answer. Gold is a global commodity and almost unaffected by demand-supply dynamics. Gold may move violently on factors ranging from geopolitical tensions to economic crises and their outcomes, more than on factors like demand disruptions and the like.
And geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties and the like have never been so much to the brim of the cup of globe. On a lighter note, one may say that it is even spilling over to the space as reflected in debates over NASA budget cuts.
In fact, it has to be noted here that no other factor could drive Gold to stratospheric heights than Europe; and invariably and unfortunately, what is bad for Europe is good for gold.
I can explain.
Beware of the Black Swan
Though positive statements are coming out of Europe for now, one has to assume that when politicians , where ever they are, try to win the crowds as it is vital for their survival. So, when they sound too optimistiic, history tells us that we have something to worry about.
We may also have to think of Black Swan scenarios hitting the political economy. There is a point that once we identify Black Swan events, they cease to be Black Swans. But, with austerity drives continuing their ruthless pace in economies across Europe, mass unrest on national scales could not be too far away.
The troika is pressurizing countries like Greece to tighten their belts. But too much tightening may lead to some lethal suffocation. Especially if one has seen better days in the past followed by horrible days in present and no hopes for future. Memories of a good meal of past haunting in times of poverty and deprivation is terrible and potent and may herald new spells of unrest.
I am talking of a European Revolution demanding a total reversal and complete overhaul of the current system waiting in wings. (Latest reports suggest that unemployment rates hover at 25% in Greece and it is not uncommon to see many Greeks living on charity these days).
This may not occur in the immediate future, but unrest is almost a daily affair in European peripheries; a few silent, a few of high decibels. The former outnumbering latter in a dangerous trend.
Unfortunatley, what is bad for Europe is good for gold.