Europe:Trampling on Iran when the carpet is pulled out?

Last Updated : 02 November 2012 at 12:30 IST

It is about spirit. Survival of fittest is actually not the survival of a person who is oversupplied with resources but the person who is oversupplied with spirit. And what applies to individuals, often apply to nations.

US and its counterparts in Europe are well aware that the slew of sanctions imposed by the west would cripple Iran economically. But have they failed to notice that the Iranian regime is still standing tall with virtually no great domestic threats?

Of course, there have been protests in the streets of Iran as the Iranian currency Rial plummetted against dollar.

"People are not happy with the economic sanctions but will that push them to overthrow the regime? I don't think so," said Thierry Coville of the Paris-based Institute of International and Strategic Relations to iafrica.com.

The reason, as one may have stated above is that of spirit. Pakistan did make a bomb, although clandestinely and Iran will, if things would progress as currently seen.

As Zulfikkar Ali Bhutto of Pakistan said, "even if we have to eat grass, we will make nuclear bomb. We have no other choice."

Sanctions

Sanctions by nature are economic and political. But the triumph of human spirit far outweighs any sanctions. As Iranians fight a battle against the daily challenges brought forth by sanctions, they in turn develop a resilience, and with the current regime utilising and exploiting it to the nth degree would finally see them through the sanctions.

Invariably, the sanctions could prevent a popular opinion from forming against Iran's nuclear program resulting in a an acceleration of the same. This is the biggest threat emanating from sanctions and a tool that has been utilised to kill the nuclear program by strangulating the economy in effect would feed the program and could even become instrumental in midwifing a bomb.

This also runs the risk of Iran being portrayed as a victim of the machinations of ill-motivated moves carried out by the west. This could be one of the reasons why Iranian popular protests against the inflationary situation did not get inflated beyond a point.

More than anyone else, Iran knows that it has not much of time left to cook a bomb. And with popular opinion possibly rallying for the same, Iran may come out with one bomb quicker than anticipated. And negotiating or waging a war with Iran possessing a nuclear bomb and Iran without a nuclear bomb is entirely different.

Iran, no doubt would try hard to meet deadlines.

Putting the house in order

And as Europe comes up with sanctions after sanctions, may be it is forgetting its own state of affairs.

Minding the backyard is one thing and managing the house in order is another. In its eagerness to comply with US policies on Iran, Europe which unlike US has to depend on Russia and volatile West Africa for its energy needs, could not only face an energy crisis, but also the social unrest that may sweep the continent; thanks to its 'robust' economic situation.

Protests are spreading across Europe and the ambience, as has been pointed out before, could usher in a revolution preceded by unrest.

Ultimately unsound politics when it meets with unsound economy would see the Europe losing all the values that it has so painstakingly nurtured to the din of a revolution. As and when the policy makers try hard to topple Iranian regime, they should not see themselves wanting a chair. It could be awkward, to say the least!

As published in: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/europetrampling-on-iran-when-the-carpet-is-pulled-out-51159-3-51160.html

God save America: What if the drone is not RQ-170 Sentinel!

Last updated:Wednesday, 14 December 2011

The recent Iranian drone episode is so full of riddles that even a game analyst may find it difficult to solve. But a primary question would be:

As claimed, whether Iran has actually downed an unmanned, unarmed US spy drone ‘RQ-170 Sentinel’ (whose technology is deemed dated) or is it something else; a highly classified drone?

In fact, there are reasons to believe that Iran has downed the drone though it is contestable as to which drone. And this could be a serious problem.

As Foreign Policy reports, on 8th December, almost a week after the drone was downed, Iran filed a formal protest with the United Nations regarding the violation of its airspace by RQ-170 unmanned spy plane. The protest note reads:

“…recently, an American RQ-170 unmanned spy plane, bearing a specific serial number, violated Iran’s air space. This plane flied 250 Kilometers deep into Iranian territory up to the northern region of the city of Tabas, where it faced prompt and forceful action by the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Let us take note that Iran is not naïve to file a protest with the United Nations unless they have solid evidence. They are not playing spoof videos.

The protest note coupled with the ISAF statement that reads—“The UAV to which the Iranians are referring may be a US unarmed reconnaissance aircraft that had been flying a mission over western Afghanistan late last week. The operators of the UAV lost control of the aircraft and had been working to determine its status."—is a sure sign that a UAV has been lost; though its identity is still shrouded in mystery.

Further, the ISAF statement has been vindicated by Pentagon Officials-- spokesmen George Little and Captain John Kirby-- who say they couldn’t go much beyond yesterday’s (December 5) ISAF release about what they could say publicly about the missing U.S. drone Iran claims to possess.

Little explained “these are sensitive reconnaissance missions, we don’t’ talk about those missions as a general rule.”

He and Kirby declined to identify the type of aircraft involved, which is believed to be the bat-winged RQ-170. “We’re just not going to comment about the particular airframe in this case,” said Kirby. “Again as George said these are very sensitive reconnaissance missions, and as a rule we don’t talk about the specifics whether it’s air frame, mission intent or exact route.”

Now, this is a problem.

While Iran claims that it has downed a US drone—RQ 170 unmanned spy plane which the pentagon is refusing to confirm--can it be that it is not RQ 170 Sentinel that has been lost, but a different, highly classified one? A drone whose existence the world is not aware of?

The Diplomat reports: “…a source who has seen an RQ-170 up close at its home base in Utah told The Diplomat that the actual aircraft is larger than the object in the images and differs in the details of its construction. The airframe in the gymnasium features a grill over its air intake that's vaguely reminiscent of the radar-blocking cover on the engine inlets of the recently-retired F-117 stealth fighter. "The drone being shown on Iranian TV cannot be real, as the RQ-170 I saw ... did not have a grill on the intake that I could see," the source said.

The Iranian object and the real RQ-170 also differ in the quality of their welds, the apparent materials used in their construction and, least compellingly, their paintjobs.”

If this be the case, it is probable that what Iran has in its kitty could be something highly classified; something over which Obama could lose his sleep. The funny aspect is that Iran may not be even aware that they have something so precious with them.

The insomniac danger is affirmed paradoxically by this Aviation Week report that says officials have confirmed anonymously and unofficially --of course they cannot be expected to be identified given Pentagon’s official position—that:

It was indeed a stealthy RQ-170 Sentinel that crashed in Iran, say U.S. Air Force officials with connections to the intelligence community. Iran says it was shot down. U.S. intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance specialists say the flying wing broke contact with its ground station and subsequently crashed…

The latest confirmation differs from earlier reports in that those said it was “possibly” or had a “50-50 chance” of being the Lockheed Martin aircraft. All comments also indicate that there was no doubt about U.S. government aircraft being in Iranian airspace.

What if it is just intended to misguide the public opinion? These off-record anonymous comments often serve this purpose.

A Guardian report says:

"...It looks like a parade float. For one thing, it looked remarkably intact for something that crashed, and the wings are drooping the wrong way.

"On the real thing, the wings go up at the end. This one's wings droop down," Pike said.

If the drones being referred to by the media community and Pentagon officials are different, suffice it to say that it would be a nightmarish scenario. After all Russians and Chinese are after it!

There are even reports that the US thought of retrieving the drone. Who would think of retrieving a fancy plane from a hostile territory, unless it is so coveted?

A Wall Street Report says:

The officials considered various options for retrieving the wreckage of the RQ-170 drone.

Under one plan, a team would be sent to retrieve the aircraft. U.S. officials considered both sending in a team of American commandos based in Afghanistan as well as using allied agents inside Iran to hunt down the downed aircraft.

Another option would have had a team sneak in to blow up the remaining pieces of the drone. A third option would have been to destroy the wreckage with an airstrike.

But the possibility of the operation escalating to a war deterred them. The report adds:

However, the officials worried that any option for retrieving or destroying the drone would have risked discovery by Iran.

"No one warmed up to the option of recovering it or destroying it because of the potential it could become a larger incident," the U.S. official said.

If an assault team entered the country to recover or destroy the drone, the official said, the U.S. "could be accused of an act of war" by the Iranian government.

Quite sensible: Now, if you were the American President; would you risk a drone or a full-blown war?

God save America!

The revised US plan to intercept potential Iranian missile attacks OR Iraqing Iran

Last updated:Tuesday, October 12, 2010

The United States Intelligence Community (IC), comprising of sixteen intelligence agencies has finally reached a billion-dollar consensus: Iran may not develop ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles) at least for the next six to eleven years! Previously, it was believed that Iran had plans to develop ICBMs in a lesser time-frame.

The United States’ NMD (National Missile Defence) program was conceived to take care of the scenario, where Iran or North Korea comes up with the ICBM to attack America.
However in a move which drew appreciation and flak alike, Mr. Obama has decided to scrap the BMDS (Ballistic Missile Defence System) - a program of NMD- to be deployed at Eastern Europe. Russian premier Mr. Vladmir Putin, has welcomed the initiative and even termed it “correct and brave”. BMDS, which had aimed to address the threat from Iran, was perceived as a threat to Russia in the garb of a missile defence system.
In the world of defence and strategy, every high-profile move has their own implicit intentions. Though critics are pummelling the US President, telling that the initiative will be interpreted as a sign of “ weakness” rather than “ goodwill”, the US is sure to have many trumps up their sleeves.

What is BMD?

BMD is a missile defence system intended to protect the US, its deployed forces, allies and friends from ballistic missiles of all ranges and in all phases of flight.
Ballistic missiles are grouped into four, based on their range:

1. Short-range (less than 1,000 kilometers)
2. Medium-range (1,000 to 3,000 kilometers)
3. Intermediate-range (3,000 to 5,500 kilometers)
4. Long-range (greater than 5,500 kilometers)

These missiles could be intercepted in three stages:

1. The boost phase, wherein the launch vehicle has been launched and its boosters have burned out.
2. Mid-course phase which means the flight through space.
3. Terminal phase where the missile is nearing its target.

Weaponry, including missiles, guided by sensors plays the role of the interceptor. A command and control system facilitates interception.

Disadvantages of the current BMD

The BMD had envisioned deploying (only)ten Ground Based Interceptors in Poland as weaponry and building a huge radar site in Czech Republic to sniff out the trajectory of the threat. The intelligence reports in 2006, furnishing the pace of the development of ICBMs by Iran, promoted the BMD program.

But the new reports tell a different story:

Iran, in its efforts to boost its capabilities is in the course of developing, short and medium- range ballistic missiles. The pace of their innovation has made the Americans to sit-up and take notice. The BMD project, in its current form, is simply incapable of addressing the short- to medium-range ballistic missiles that could be fired by Iran. It would leave the Americans lurking in darkness as Iran fine-tunes its technological prowess.

Moreover, the proposed interceptors in Poland would have facilitated nil coverage to some of the allies in NATO like Bulgaria, Greece, Romania and Turkey.

Above all, Russia perceived it as a new step in the arms race with American missiles right in its yard.

Obama’s Plan

In the new plan, missile defence components will be deployed across Europe in a span of ten years in four phases, beginning from 2011- the main-stay of the program being a combination of fixed and re-locatable Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) and radars.

The plan in phases:

Phase one: In the timeframe of 2011, deploy the tried and tested missile defence systems available. The whole process may take the subsequent two years and includes the sea based Aegis weapon system, the SM-3 interceptor (Block 1A), and sensors such as the forward-based Army Navy / Transportable Radar Surveillance system (AN/ TPY-2). The advantage is obvious: regional ballistic missile threats to Europe and the deployed US troops and their families will be taken care of.

Phase two: In the timeframe of 2015, deploy a more capable version of the SM-3 interceptor (Block IB) in both sea and land-based configurations succeeding appropriate testing. Advanced sensors will help in expanding the defended area against threats arising out of short- and medium-range missiles.

Phase three: In the time-frame of 2018, deploy the more advanced SM-3 Block IIA variant (which is currently under development). It will work against short-, medium- and intermediate-range missile threats.

Phase four: In the time-frame of 2020, deploy the SM-3 Block IIB after its development and testing are complete. It would help US to cope with medium - and intermediate-range missiles and the potential ICBM threat of the future.

The US will also be improving the sensors for missile defence throughout the four phases. And the new plan doesn’t warrant the installation of huge radar in Czech Republic. A different and better interceptor technology means ease of deployment and use.

The new system of missile defence will be augmented with the existing ground-based interceptors deployed at Alaska and California to protect the home-land, in the fourth phase. Moreover, the new plan is six to seven years ahead of the shelved plan, in implementation. In addition to extending the protective umbrella over all NATO members and allies, in concert with their individual defence capabilities, the plan provides flexibility to up-grade and adjust the architecture of interceptor system in a cost-effective manner.

Unlike the previous plan, the new missile defence plan incorporates the allies in Europe as well as NATO. It promotes a multi-lateral approach and not a trilateral approach involving Poland and Czech Republic only. In short, the new system is more “realistic” in its perception of threat scenarios.

The revised system will ensure that European countries and Unites States work more closely on strategic fronts. This will eventually give rise to a fortification of relationship between the participants, ensuring a stronger deterrent in place of which missile defence system is only a part of.

In a scenario where Iran launches a missile at a NATO ally, it will incur the wrath of all NATO members.

A call to Russia?

There seems to be a plan to invite Russia with its wealth of strategic knowledge, to join the new plan. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, in his first major speech as the Secretary General, referred to this aspect. He emphasized on exploring the potential of linking the US, NATO and Russian missile defence systems “ at an appropriate time” to combine their collective wealth of experience aimed at “mutual benefit “. He was of the hope that a revival of NATO-Russia council where both parties could discuss common security concerns enhances cooperation. Iran, after all, is a concern for Russia too.

If the above said plan gets materialized, Iran gets the signal that US is not alone in its endeavour to curtail the strategic ambitions of the so called rogue sates.

Russia, though has welcomed the US plan to scrap the BMD, seems to be fully aware of the consequences of the new plan ( as explained in the ensuing paragraphs). Beyond diplomatic niceties as exhibited by the Russian premier, Russian Ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin said that Russia cannot be “childishly euphoric” about the US initiative to suspend the BMD deployment. Russians are reluctant to perceive it as a “concession” from the US.

Why Iran has changed course to a different degree of defence?

Before explaining in detail, the implications of the new missile defence system, it is worthwhile to think why Iran has changed its plans, in a strategic somersault. Why is it keen on developing short and medium range ballistic missiles instead of ICBMs?

It is because Iran has shuffled its priority hit list sensing change of strategic realities.

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles are essentially long range missiles which Iran planned to include in its arsenal to mount a strike on America, of course after fitting it with an indigenous nuclear war head. Iran foresaw the possibility of a US strike and found that an effective deterrent can be nuclear weapons and a couple of delivery vehicles.

But soon enough, Iran realized that the actual threat lay somewhere close to it, in its neighbour hood- Israel. The Islamic Republic had been at loggerheads with the Zionist state since the Iranian revolution. The verbal wars between both countries continued into decades. Threats from US and satiation of Israel’s nuclear arsenal triggered the Iranian hunger for nukes. And that lead to its development of covert nuclear installations retailed out by notorious A.Q. Khan.

But one cannot depend on a postman to deliver these warheads! Hence, the short and medium range ballistic missiles, tailored for Israel.

The latest news is that Iran is shopping around to have advanced surface-to-air missiles (S-300) and Russia can be a source. Read this is in the context of Iran revealing its secret nuclear installation at Qom.

Iran now knows that it is impossible for it to develop nuclear weapons, at least when the Americans are on prowl. The only solution is to protect these facilities which it has painstakingly built after several years of sweating it out, braving sanctions. But Israel is someone who can upset the applecart. Russia too may back-off from selling missiles due to international pressure. The only way out is to foster the indigenous missile development program and protect itself from possible Israeli air-attacks.

Sneak a peek at Israel’s hand

As usual, Israel has played its trump-United States of America. Engaging all of its sixteen intelligence agencies for some serious data-mining in Iran shows the gravity of the situation as perceived by the Americans. If the previous plan was to install a BMDS to protect American longevity, the new plan takes into account the United States’ brother-like love for Israel. In the garb of protecting partners and allies and inviting Russia to join forces with America, US is stepping up the pressure on Iran that could break the barometer, eventually. Add to this, the fresh call for additional sanctions and the Iranians living a life in the ventilator, may soon be doomed. The internal unrest in Iran would be fomented, as peace and stability turn into rubble.

Advantage USA

So, what piece of pie will the U.S. get out of this? “Really big”, is the answer.

The US will get a back-door entry into the neighbour- hood of Russia as Iran turns into a cauldron of chaos. The authorities there can be dethroned. Iran has nuclear capability which is a good pretext for the US to ‘intervene’ or in other words, “Iraqing Iran”. Millions of barrels of oil and gas are an incentive enough! To achieve this, the US just has to relocate a part of its troops in the military bases of Afghanistan to Iran. Any wonder, the US is “considering” an increase of troops in Afghanistan?

Implications on Russia

Though the new plan is intended to curtail Iran’s strategic game plans, the ultimate aim could be Russia! A pro-US bulwark, which the plan eventually hopes to build in Europe and Asia by the year 2020, is definitely not in the interests of Russia- and Russia knows it well.

How Russia is going to tackle the emerging situation can be an interesting study in strategic affairs.