Last updated:Wednesday, 14 December 2011
The recent Iranian drone episode is so full of riddles that even a game analyst may find it difficult to solve. But a primary question would be:
As claimed, whether Iran has actually downed an unmanned, unarmed US spy drone ‘RQ-170 Sentinel’ (whose technology is deemed dated) or is it something else; a highly classified drone?
In fact, there are reasons to believe that Iran has downed the drone though it is contestable as to which drone. And this could be a serious problem.
As Foreign Policy reports, on 8th December, almost a week after the drone was downed, Iran filed a formal protest with the United Nations regarding the violation of its airspace by RQ-170 unmanned spy plane. The protest note reads:
“…recently, an American RQ-170 unmanned spy plane, bearing a specific serial number, violated Iran’s air space. This plane flied 250 Kilometers deep into Iranian territory up to the northern region of the city of Tabas, where it faced prompt and forceful action by the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Let us take note that Iran is not naïve to file a protest with the United Nations unless they have solid evidence. They are not playing spoof videos.
The protest note coupled with the ISAF statement that reads—“The UAV to which the Iranians are referring may be a US unarmed reconnaissance aircraft that had been flying a mission over western Afghanistan late last week. The operators of the UAV lost control of the aircraft and had been working to determine its status."—is a sure sign that a UAV has been lost; though its identity is still shrouded in mystery.
Further, the ISAF statement has been vindicated by Pentagon Officials-- spokesmen George Little and Captain John Kirby-- who say they couldn’t go much beyond yesterday’s (December 5) ISAF release about what they could say publicly about the missing U.S. drone Iran claims to possess.
Little explained “these are sensitive reconnaissance missions, we don’t’ talk about those missions as a general rule.”
He and Kirby declined to identify the type of aircraft involved, which is believed to be the bat-winged RQ-170. “We’re just not going to comment about the particular airframe in this case,” said Kirby. “Again as George said these are very sensitive reconnaissance missions, and as a rule we don’t talk about the specifics whether it’s air frame, mission intent or exact route.”
Now, this is a problem.
While Iran claims that it has downed a US drone—RQ 170 unmanned spy plane which the pentagon is refusing to confirm--can it be that it is not RQ 170 Sentinel that has been lost, but a different, highly classified one? A drone whose existence the world is not aware of?
The Diplomat reports: “…a source who has seen an RQ-170 up close at its home base in Utah told The Diplomat that the actual aircraft is larger than the object in the images and differs in the details of its construction. The airframe in the gymnasium features a grill over its air intake that's vaguely reminiscent of the radar-blocking cover on the engine inlets of the recently-retired F-117 stealth fighter. "The drone being shown on Iranian TV cannot be real, as the RQ-170 I saw ... did not have a grill on the intake that I could see," the source said.
The Iranian object and the real RQ-170 also differ in the quality of their welds, the apparent materials used in their construction and, least compellingly, their paintjobs.”
If this be the case, it is probable that what Iran has in its kitty could be something highly classified; something over which Obama could lose his sleep. The funny aspect is that Iran may not be even aware that they have something so precious with them.
The insomniac danger is affirmed paradoxically by this Aviation Week report that says officials have confirmed anonymously and unofficially --of course they cannot be expected to be identified given Pentagon’s official position—that:
It was indeed a stealthy RQ-170 Sentinel that crashed in Iran, say U.S. Air Force officials with connections to the intelligence community. Iran says it was shot down. U.S. intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance specialists say the flying wing broke contact with its ground station and subsequently crashed…
The latest confirmation differs from earlier reports in that those said it was “possibly” or had a “50-50 chance” of being the Lockheed Martin aircraft. All comments also indicate that there was no doubt about U.S. government aircraft being in Iranian airspace.
What if it is just intended to misguide the public opinion? These off-record anonymous comments often serve this purpose.
A Guardian report says:
"...It looks like a parade float. For one thing, it looked remarkably intact for something that crashed, and the wings are drooping the wrong way.
"On the real thing, the wings go up at the end. This one's wings droop down," Pike said.
If the drones being referred to by the media community and Pentagon officials are different, suffice it to say that it would be a nightmarish scenario. After all Russians and Chinese are after it!
There are even reports that the US thought of retrieving the drone. Who would think of retrieving a fancy plane from a hostile territory, unless it is so coveted?
A Wall Street Report says:
The officials considered various options for retrieving the wreckage of the RQ-170 drone.
Under one plan, a team would be sent to retrieve the aircraft. U.S. officials considered both sending in a team of American commandos based in Afghanistan as well as using allied agents inside Iran to hunt down the downed aircraft.
Another option would have had a team sneak in to blow up the remaining pieces of the drone. A third option would have been to destroy the wreckage with an airstrike.
But the possibility of the operation escalating to a war deterred them. The report adds:
However, the officials worried that any option for retrieving or destroying the drone would have risked discovery by Iran.
"No one warmed up to the option of recovering it or destroying it because of the potential it could become a larger incident," the U.S. official said.
If an assault team entered the country to recover or destroy the drone, the official said, the U.S. "could be accused of an act of war" by the Iranian government.
Quite sensible: Now, if you were the American President; would you risk a drone or a full-blown war?
God save America!
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