Russian hacking: Strategic plot to kill liberal democratic world order?

By Rakesh Neelakandan

News sirens are blaring that US National Security Adviser Michael Flynn’s communication with the Russian Ambassador does not smack of any wrong-doing. 

But how trust-worthy that is, one may ask, especially with the credibility of his boss’ position under question.

Trust, the five-letter word has protected the humanity so far into its evolutionary present. Very clichéd it is to observe that trust once lost is just that, lost forever. And what is true for individuals is more so when it comes to political institutions and associated beliefs. And no other time it rings true than in the era of post-truth, alternative facts politics.

The very idea of US Presidential credibility has been at stake, served on a platter , perhaps by none other than Russian President Putin, a life modelled and sharpened in the dark arts of intelligence, institutional and individual. Putin just had what he wanted! The whole hacking episode could have a serious strategic dimension and a plot that extends beyond the immediate horizon!

Let’s for the sake of argument accept that Russian hackers did not violate the sanctity of the most sacred of all acts in the world of democracy, namely the US Presidential election. But whatever, whether it has happened or not, the credibility of Trump’s presidency has been questioned. Now, we have Donald Trump as the POTUS, or do we; would it have been Hillary, otherwise? And how about the Kompromat?

Questions, and the White House trembles as if it is possessed and convulsed by an earthquake. The credibility of the highest office in the USA and arguably the most powerful man in the world is doubtless, under question; the mark of which is perhaps, doomed to hang above the well kempt golden hair of the incumbent for the next four years.

Of course, independent investigations could be called for.But that would seriously undermine the very credibility of the Office in no uncertain terms and such a move can never be in the interest of the incumbent at the Oval Office. It would tarnish the image of him as well as his position. Now, no politician, unless he or she a true Gandhian, would renounce his or her position. And The Donald could hardly be such a fellow.

The fight thus began and over what? The legitimacy of American President! If not for the ambiance of post-truth era, it would have appeared a bit surreal, hard to digest. I would have pinched myself just to ensure whether or not it is a nightmare. 

If Donald Trump is determined to fight media tooth and nail, he would go thermonuclear on anything that as much as challenge the legitimacy of his office, even if it is a tiny anthill in the backyard of White House. Thus a crisis has ensued, a crisis of confidence and legitimacy. Yes, Putin presumably got what he wanted! The whole hacking episode could have been plotted to meet this end. 

The President of the Unites States?

The Supreme Commander of the US Armed Forces?

The Chief of global police?

The face of Uncle Sam for the next four years?

Question marks, question marks, and a proliferation of them. Thank you Putin, thank you very much! If the Office of the so-called Messiah of liberal western democracy could be eroded of credibility, what else could not be? If the one thing that would stand even after everything else would have fallen, is made to fall in the first place, what else would stand?

(Abraham Lincoln must be turning in his grave, or reaching for his stakes, if he were a vampire hunter as portrayed in a Hollywood flick!)

This coupled with Trump administration’s servitude to alternative facts, his thorough unwillingness to make public his tax returns,  his alleged conflict of interests vis-à-vis his business, and reported aversion to climate pact and certain civil rights , not to speak of his uncomfortable relationship with the US intelligence agencies  —all do not bode well for his presidency, and sad to say, democracy, not only in the US but in all places where people care for their flag and their anthem, including India.

The idea is that the democracy, as followed by nations like India and the United States (?) whatever its shortcomings be, is the prime ray of hope in this age of so-called fascist uprisals all across the globe. When the so-called custodian or guardian of the ideal for which millions sweated, cried and died over scores of decades finds the finger of accusations pointed at him, should not it be obligatory on his part to order an independent investigation into it? 

With great power comes, not great irresponsibility!

Europe:Trampling on Iran when the carpet is pulled out?

Last Updated : 02 November 2012 at 12:30 IST

It is about spirit. Survival of fittest is actually not the survival of a person who is oversupplied with resources but the person who is oversupplied with spirit. And what applies to individuals, often apply to nations.

US and its counterparts in Europe are well aware that the slew of sanctions imposed by the west would cripple Iran economically. But have they failed to notice that the Iranian regime is still standing tall with virtually no great domestic threats?

Of course, there have been protests in the streets of Iran as the Iranian currency Rial plummetted against dollar.

"People are not happy with the economic sanctions but will that push them to overthrow the regime? I don't think so," said Thierry Coville of the Paris-based Institute of International and Strategic Relations to iafrica.com.

The reason, as one may have stated above is that of spirit. Pakistan did make a bomb, although clandestinely and Iran will, if things would progress as currently seen.

As Zulfikkar Ali Bhutto of Pakistan said, "even if we have to eat grass, we will make nuclear bomb. We have no other choice."

Sanctions

Sanctions by nature are economic and political. But the triumph of human spirit far outweighs any sanctions. As Iranians fight a battle against the daily challenges brought forth by sanctions, they in turn develop a resilience, and with the current regime utilising and exploiting it to the nth degree would finally see them through the sanctions.

Invariably, the sanctions could prevent a popular opinion from forming against Iran's nuclear program resulting in a an acceleration of the same. This is the biggest threat emanating from sanctions and a tool that has been utilised to kill the nuclear program by strangulating the economy in effect would feed the program and could even become instrumental in midwifing a bomb.

This also runs the risk of Iran being portrayed as a victim of the machinations of ill-motivated moves carried out by the west. This could be one of the reasons why Iranian popular protests against the inflationary situation did not get inflated beyond a point.

More than anyone else, Iran knows that it has not much of time left to cook a bomb. And with popular opinion possibly rallying for the same, Iran may come out with one bomb quicker than anticipated. And negotiating or waging a war with Iran possessing a nuclear bomb and Iran without a nuclear bomb is entirely different.

Iran, no doubt would try hard to meet deadlines.

Putting the house in order

And as Europe comes up with sanctions after sanctions, may be it is forgetting its own state of affairs.

Minding the backyard is one thing and managing the house in order is another. In its eagerness to comply with US policies on Iran, Europe which unlike US has to depend on Russia and volatile West Africa for its energy needs, could not only face an energy crisis, but also the social unrest that may sweep the continent; thanks to its 'robust' economic situation.

Protests are spreading across Europe and the ambience, as has been pointed out before, could usher in a revolution preceded by unrest.

Ultimately unsound politics when it meets with unsound economy would see the Europe losing all the values that it has so painstakingly nurtured to the din of a revolution. As and when the policy makers try hard to topple Iranian regime, they should not see themselves wanting a chair. It could be awkward, to say the least!

As published in: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/europetrampling-on-iran-when-the-carpet-is-pulled-out-51159-3-51160.html

Will Sandy give back what Great Recession snatched away from us?

Last Updated : 01 November 2012 at 10:40 IST

The Americans are taking a heave of sigh after Sandy, the Frankenstorm lashed through the area leaving behind death and destruction. The estimated losses vary from $15 billion to $45 billion. While it may take time to rebuild and restore the infrastructure there to its original glory, a few set of positives emerge.

The restoration of lives and livelihoods is a painful task; but the Americans can spend their way out of the current economic crisis and could even think of being thankful to Sandy for all that she has done, if they are willing.

The Americans have been QE freaks. Ben Bernanke has now spend many a billion dollars to perk the economy up by injecting innumerable greenback into the system. But ultimately this money was invested by banks in commodities and equities who were supposed to lend them in the first place to industry and economy. This is because of a heightened sense of risk aversion as exhibited by the banks.

Hurricane Sandy has changed all that and more. Infrastructure restoration would be the primary priority of Obama administration as just like any other political leader, he loves to sit in his cushion chair in the Oval Office, especially as he has already cast his vote and requesting his fellow Americans to follow suite.

"Do not figure out why we can't do something. I want you to figure out how we do something," Obama exhorted to his legion of officials as and when he assessed the situatiion. "I want you to cut through red tape, I want you to cut through bureaucracy, there is no excuse for inaction at this point. I want every agency to lean forward." he added.

Once this vision is implemented, banks too will have to lend the money to facilitate reconstruction efforts; and right money (which is government backed) in right hands (people eager to pick up their lives where they left it) at right time (a time of death and destruction) can work wonders.

Spending for reconstruction would no doubt would help the economies there to gain momentum and restore some of the lost jobs. Post World War growth experienced by the world was no magic and all reconstruction feats.

There is a psychological factor attached to this as well. Once the economies get back to their feet and that too from depressive moods would double the sense of well being and hope.

What the Great Recession had snatched away from US could be delivered at least in part or if that be not the case could at least trigger a new wave of optimism and hope. And when the world's largest economy finds its dancing tune, that is a case for revival for the entire planet.

Sandy will spark a micro-trend. Let that be a trigger for other macro trends underpinned by hope and optimism. 

As published in: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/will-sandy-give-back-what-great-recession-snatched-away-from-us-51135-3-51136.html

Gold's future and the coming European Revolution

Last Updated : 19 October 2012 at 12:10 ISTYesterday we saw that what that could be good for US economy may not be good for gold. Now as the yellow metal is set for its second weekly decline, one may read from investor's brow a question: is it the beginning of the end of a bull rally in gold?

The question though may appear simple, does not have a one-line answer. Gold is a global commodity and almost unaffected by demand-supply dynamics. Gold may move violently on factors ranging from geopolitical tensions to economic crises and their outcomes, more than on factors like demand disruptions and the like.

And geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties and the like have never been so much to the brim of the cup of globe. On a lighter note, one may say that it is even spilling over to the space as reflected in debates over NASA budget cuts.

In fact, it has to be noted here that no other factor could drive Gold to stratospheric heights than Europe; and invariably and unfortunately, what is bad for Europe is good for gold.

I can explain.

Beware of the Black Swan

Though positive statements are coming out of Europe for now, one has to assume that when politicians , where ever they are, try to win the crowds as it is vital for their survival. So, when they sound too optimistiic, history tells us that we have something to worry about.

We may also have to think of Black Swan scenarios hitting the political economy. There is a point that once we identify Black Swan events, they cease to be Black Swans. But, with austerity drives continuing their ruthless pace in economies across Europe, mass unrest on national scales could not be too far away.

The troika is pressurizing countries like Greece to tighten their belts. But too much tightening may lead to some lethal suffocation. Especially if one has seen better days in the past followed by horrible days in present and no hopes for future. Memories of a good meal of past haunting in times of poverty and deprivation is terrible and potent and may herald new spells of unrest.

I am talking of a European Revolution demanding a total reversal and complete overhaul of the current system waiting in wings. (Latest reports suggest that unemployment rates hover at 25% in Greece and it is not uncommon to see many Greeks living on charity these days).

This may not occur in the immediate future, but unrest is almost a daily affair in European peripheries; a few silent, a few of high decibels. The former outnumbering latter in a dangerous trend.

Unfortunatley, what is bad for Europe is good for gold. 

As published in: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/golds-future-and-the-coming-european-revolution-50951-3-50952.html

Volatility, thy name is Crude Oil

Last Updated : 18 October 2012 at 14:40 IST

Crude oil prices invariably hinge on two factors for the medium term: Turkey-Syria relations or the lack of it and the Iran issue.

EU leaders think that Iran has enhanced its Uranium-enrichment capabilities apparently setting the latter in a position from where it could pluck a bomb from the blue. The fruit is increasingly becoming low-hanging, it has to be assumed.

Now, chances are more that a surgical strike targeting Iran nuke facilities is in the pipeline. But, the possibility of a glitch in this particular pipeline exists as Presidential elections in US looms.

It is clear and apparent that Israel will not be that audacious to launch a strike on its own on Iranian facilities without the blessings of Uncle Sam.

And as long as the US President is elected to the Oval Office for a fresh new term, political acumen of the basic degree suggests that nothing, one may repeat, nothing is going to happen that would considerably set a wave of unpredictability marching on to the shores of political landscape in US. No strikes would be carried out, as such an initiative may severely affect the US public opinion and set it up for an an insane roller-coaster ride. This is an anathema in election times.

Even the British PM David Cameron has hinted that it would be an inauspicious time to hit Iran as Iran could still get away with the image of a victim.

Now, this situation would have some vital consequences as far as the crude oil prices are concerned.

Given the lack of stability in the Middle East, the presidential candidates especially Mitt Romney may come up with ugly comments on the unstable landscape there: he already has. This, in effect may prompt reactions from the current US President that may be used as cues by crude oil futures.

Naturally, volatility in futures would be the rule.

Now when it comes to Turkey-Syria relations, things could turn out to be worse. Turkey is confidently firing across the Syrian border on two accounts:

1. Syria is already mired in a civil war. Hence Assad will not be in a position to be aggressive beyond a point as he is already busy with his 'home-works' and head aches.

2. Turkey, unlike Syria has NATO support. If Syria decides to attack Turkey by firing all cylinders, in an either-me-or-you-war, NATO can chip in. Specifically, this is the factor that gave Turkey the courage to ground a Syria bound civilian air craft from Russia and come up with the news that the plane had carried ammunition.

Now, Syria cannot be lame when Turkey attacks it and in order to maintain good humor amongst his dwindling base of supporters, Assad will continue with attacks although on a subdued scale.

Another factor is that Turkey too would no want a full-blown war with Assad as that may help Assad to rally all domestic support and help him be friends with the current rebels in Syria and fight the war against Turkey—foreign enemy--shoulder rubbing against shoulders between erst while rebels and Assad's soldiers. This would be the most disgusting outcome of a potential war as far as Turkey is concerned.

This situation of semi-war too smacks of uncertainty and holds prospects of conflict escalation making crude oil prices highly volatile. Add to this, the consequences effected by data releases every week on economies including Eurozone, China and US and the picture becomes clear.

One may have to say: Volatility, thy name is Crude Oil. 

As published in: http://www.commodityonline.com/news/volatility-thy-name-is-crude-oil-50935-3-50936.html

http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Iran-Turkey-Syria-increasing-the-Volatility-of-Oil-Markets.html

India’s role in Sri Lanka’s Dostoyevskian moment: A reading of UNHRC vote after settling down of dust

After Fyodor Mikhaylovich Dostoyevsky was sentenced to death by the Tsar of Russia for alleged royal subversion, some intuitive conviction in the great writer bordering Extra Sensory Perception told him for sure that he will not be hanged.

On the morning of execution, promulgation came out from the palace sparing Dostoevsky and fellow convicts from the rope and deporting them to cold prisons in Siberia. The whole thing was a drama (mock execution) and on the night before the same, it was noted by the author that the hair of his prison inmate, a fellow-convict, turned grey out of excessive anxiety. The palace circle which staged the drama even deliberated at length whether or not to dig graves in advance just to add a realistic punch to the whole episode.

The outcome: Dostoyevsky and his inmates thanked King profusely and remained indebted to the King for the rest of their lives even as they labored hard in Siberia.(Dostoyevsky even wrote a poem in praise of His Highness while he was in prison.)

While India’s vote at the UNHRC was against Sri Lanka, and marked a paradigm shift in its stand pertaining to country-specific resolutions, the vote against Sri Lanka has been interpreted as:

1. Feet-dragging until the last minute by Indian government
2. Buckling to American pressure on the issue
3. Allowing Foreign Policy to be dictated by Tamil Nadu politics
4. Estranging Sri Lanka
5. Pushing Sri Lanka into the strategic embrace of China

Before checking out the validity of these arguments, let me just introduce a self-explanatory prop, straight out of the revised draft of the US sponsored resolution at human rights council.

Change in a few words and punctuations, but Sri Lanka got what it wanted; all because of India. If the US draft had been adopted, it would have spelt a disaster in terms of sovereignty and strategic autonomy of Sri Lanka, estranging the island nation from the international community and deepening further the ethnic rivalry between the Sinhalese and Tamils; needless to say, a political-diplomatic disaster was averted.

But Sri Lanka also had its Dostoyevskian moment. It remains a fact that India voted against Sri Lanka. And it is a political no-nonsense statement disapproving of the attitude and complacency of the government of Sri Lanka. India offered Sri Lanka an Iron hand softened by a back-channel diplomatic glove. The death sentence was passed. But ultimately Sri Lanka got spared. At the same time no diplomatic blank-cheque was handed over by India.

No wonder Sri Lanka, subsequent to initial fretting and fuming –diplomatic theatrics--decided not to make politically incorrect statements; perhaps out of a Dostoevskian gratitude. It did not and could not praise India.

Nonetheless, President Mahinda Rajapkase, in his statements did not refer to India in a critical manner.

Now, coming down to the five arguments:

1. Rather than India dragging its feet, it could possibly be that India kept its diplomats on their toes. To save the wounded Sinhalese lion from the teeth of the T-Rexian US diplomats was no easy challenge. It was as if the document was handed over to India with an open mandate. India did use the editing tools viciously. The dragging-feet-theorists should understand that getting things done in the diplomatic circles can often be time consuming and taxing and sometimes thankless a job.

2. Rather than India buckling under US pressure, the case seemingly was other way around. US bowed to India in this regard. A comparable success would have been when India successfully lobbied and kept Richard Holbrooke—Obama’s special envoy for Af-Pak region-- out of pursuing Kashmir issue.

3. Seemingly, the government at the Center looked hapless in the face of the Tamil opposition to central government going slow on the Sri Lankan issue. DMK even threatened to pull out its ministers and Jayalalithaa wrote twice to the Prime Minister on the issue. But it has to be noted that DMK is at a disadvantage in Tamil Nadu as well as in national politics especially because of its scam-ridden image. With the party not being in power in Tamil Nadu, it would not want to aggravate its poor condition by estranging Congress and going overboard in rhetoric. In other words, it did not want to commit a political suicide. The point is: even as Tamil Nadu politicians created uproar on the Sri Lankan issue, it impacted the policy formulation by Manmohan Singh government to the extent that the issue was thrust into the national limelight resulting in a departure from government’s position on country-specific resolutions.

4. Given that India saved Sri Lanka from a nightmare from materializing, the Sri Lankan government should have had a friendly pat for India. But given the populist nature of the whole issue and considering the Sinhalese pressure, it could be impossible for the Sri Lankan government to do that. The Sri Lankan press would accuse India of back-stabbing and haul other abuses. But the UN document is a testimony that India delivered on its position even as it walked a tight rope and exhibited political correctness.

5. Analysts are vehemently arguing that the Indian vote has knocked the nation out of its position of strategic leverage vis-à-vis China. They say India has committed a grave mistake by ‘pushing Sri Lanka towards Chinese embrace’.

It is undeniable that Sri Lanka has won the Elam war because China helped it profusely. While the western aid/grants and weapons were tethered to conditions that would have restrained the Sri Lankan government from fighting the way it did, China chipped in with unconditional aid/grants and weapons.

Chinese stand was simple:

“We have to understand that the Sri Lankan conflict lasted for three decades and that thousands died. The LTTE were terrorists, as even the UN agreed. The Sri Lankan Government was a legitimate sovereign state actor to procure arms. The end of the war was good news and we need to be frank that it was not mediation that achieved it.”

This is in the face of the USA suspending grant aid in early 2007, pending improvements in the security situation and Germany reducing bilateral aid even as the United Kingdom (UK) suspended US$3 million of debt relief.

It has to be noted that Sri Lanka was one of the first countries to recognise the People’s Republic of China in 1950. And going by history, China’s Sri Lankan stand is consistent with their previous chapters in bilateral engagement.

In 1963, China and Sri Lanka signed a commercial maritime agreement to foster trade, though it was seen in India and by some in the West as an attempt by China to extend its naval presence. Sri Lanka even backed Chinese bid for a permanent seat at the UN Security Council.

“In 1972 numerous aid, trade and arms deals were signed and by 1975 China was Sri Lanka’s largest export destination, leading some to wonder whether Sri Lanka made herself too reliant on the East Asian giant” [See the case study on Sri Lanka appeared in ‘China and conflict-affected states: Between principle and pragmatism’ written by Thomas Wheeler and brought out by ‘Saferworld’]

The point to be remembered is this: This is not a sudden surge in friendship experienced in the bilateral relations between Sri Lanka and China. Whatever the nature of their relationship, it is consistent with historical relations.

Moreover, it would be a strategic blunder for Sri Lanka if it relies too much either on India or on China estranging one at the cost of the other.

Ideally, it should balance aspirations of both powers and leverage maximum strategic mileage.

Published in: http://asiastudies.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=268&Itemid=268

Afghanistan: A failed mission!

The US occupation of Afghanistan had three primary objectives:

1. Dismantle the Al-Qaeda network
2. Oust the Taliban regime
3. Establish modern-day democratic regime in Afghanistan

A year ahead of partial and two years ahead of complete withdrawal from Afghanistan, has the decade plus Occupation achieved its objectives?

The Al-Qaeda as an organization is still alive and is expanding into hither-to-virgin territories including Africa. This is primarily because Al-Qaeda is an ideology rather than an organization. It has a decentralized and distributed structure whose existence could easily be hidden behind a fake smile by a torch bearer, who can light the deadly cannon (or himself) with dexterity at appropriate time. Wrapped in religious diktats, the al-Qaeda ideology is like a Fast Moving Consumer Good: cheap and instantly consumable.

The point is, when you are fighting an idea and you kill a personification of idea--its bearer--chances are more that the idea assumes a hydra-headed existence. It refuses to die down and develops new sparks, fumes and fires. History is a testimony to this phenomenon.

Thus, dumping Osama’s body in the sea spawns thousand other Osamas.

The Taliban has been ousted and if reports are anything to go by, is being brought back to the throne by those who ousted it in the first place. It is branded political solution to Afghan problem. This mutation is puzzling; and possibly lethal. It is like going back in time and killing your own grandfather. It is identical to providing a nursery for future 9/11 terrorist-trainees on a silver platter.

Just imagine; can you ever expect Mullah Mohammad Omar, the Taliban supremo and the al-Qaeda ideologue, or for that matter any of his clones, to comply with modern-day democracy? Will he support stringent Shariah law or will he be supporting a secular Afghanistan? Will he thank America for having brought Talban back into the government or will he curse America for ousting Taliban in the first place?

If one can answer these questions truthfully and with justice, it would effectively kill the notion that the second objective has been achieved.

If Taliban ever becomes a part of the Afghan political solution, I would think that the third objective too would fail.

Now, can the Occupation retreat with heads held high and resounding boots thumping the earthen land in assurance?

Iraq!